Vascular surgery is projected to have the highest shortages of physicians, while emergency medicine physicians are projected to have the greatest surplus by 2038, the Health Resources and Services Administration’s National Center for Health Workforce Analysis found.
The HRSA workforce simulation model assesses the adequacy of the nation’s projected workforce supply for 35 physician specialties from 2023 through 2038.
Across all specialties, there is a projected shortage of 141,160 full-time equivalent physicians by 2038. Only five of the 35 physician specialties are expected to see a surplus of workers. The shortages in some specialties can be mitigated by increasing the use of nurse practitioners and physician assistants, according to the center.
Here are the 35 specialties ranked by highest to lowest shortage.
| Specialty | Adequacy 2038 | Shortage / surplus |
| Vascular Surgery | 66% | -34% |
| Ophthalmology | 72% | -28% |
| Thoracic Surgery | 73% | -27% |
| Plastic Surgery | 74% | -26% |
| Family Medicine | 76% | -24% |
| Hospital Medicine | 78% | -22% |
| Allergy and Immunology | 83% | -17% |
| Anesthesiology | 83% | -17% |
| General Internal Medicine | 83% | -17% |
| Geriatrics | 84% | -16% |
| Pathology | 84% | -16% |
| Cardiology | 85% | -15% |
| Nephrology | 85% | -15% |
| Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation | 85% | -15% |
| OBGYN | 86% | -14% |
| Pediatrics | 86% | -14% |
| Otolaryngology | 87% | -13% |
| Radiation Oncology | 87% | -13% |
| All Physicians | 88% | -12% |
| Neurological Surgery | 89% | -11% |
| Orthopedic Surgery | 88% | -12% |
| Radiology | 90% | -10% |
| General Surgery | 91% | -9% |
| Infectious Diseases | 91% | -9% |
| Rheumatology | 91% | -9% |
| Other Specialist | 93% | -7% |
| Dermatology | 95% | -5% |
| Hematology and Oncology | 96% | -4% |
| Colorectal Surgery | 98% | -2% |
| Gastroenterology | 98% | -2% |
| Neurology | 104% | +4% |
| Neonatology | 106% | +6% |
| Endocrinology | 109% | +9% |
| Critical Care and Pulmonology Medicine | 112% | +12% |
| Emergency Medicine | 116% | +16% |
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