Published in Jpn J Clin Oncol. 2014 Dec;44(12):1189-97
Authors: Chiang JK1 et al
OBJECTIVE:
Pain control helps improve quality of life for advanced cancer patients, yet it is unknown whether opioid use increases risk of death. Analyzing the association between time-varying pain medication and the risk of death presents a challenge. This prospective observational study examined the predictability of the patients’ survival by variations of daily opioid dosage during the last few days of life.
METHODS:
Of the 231 cancer patients admitted to a hospice ward between July 2007 and June 2008 was conducted using Cox’s model and adjusting for the effects of demography, clinical symptoms/signs, intravenous fluid supplements, antibiotics use and laboratory tests.
RESULTS:
We found a 3-day negative slope in daily oral morphine equivalent 1 day before each death event to be an independently significant predictor of short time to death (hazard ratio = 1.55; 95% confidence interval: 1.06-2.27). The other significant predictors including faster heart-rate (hazard ratio = 1.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.00-1.02), comorbidity with diabetes (hazard ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval: 1.00-2.47), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group with performance status of 3 or 4 (hazard ratio = 1.78, 95% confidence interval: 1.23-2.58), jaundice (hazard ratio = 2.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.29-3.15), hypercalcemia (hazard ratio = 2.05, 95% confidence interval: 1.40-3.00) and higher serum creatinine level (hazard ratio = 1.36, 95% confidence interval: 1.18-1.57), but use first generation of cephalosporin was a negative predictor of short time to death (hazard ratio = 0.44, 95% confidence interval: 0.28-0.68).
CONCLUSION:
A reduction of daily oral morphine equivalent over three consecutive days suggests worsening physical condition significantly and independently predicting imminent death ∼1 day later.
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