Intraoperative hypotension (IOH) is strongly linked to organ system injuries and postoperative death. Blood pressure itself is a powerful predictor of IOH; however, it is unclear which pressures carry the lowest risk and may be leveraged to prevent subsequent hypotension. Our objective was to develop a model that predicts, before surgery and according to a patient’s unique characteristics, which intraoperative mean arterial pressures (MAPs) between 65 and 100 mm Hg have a low risk of IOH, defined as an MAP <65 mm Hg, and may serve as testable hemodynamic targets to prevent IOH.
Adult, noncardiac surgeries under general anesthesia at 2 tertiary care hospitals of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center were divided into training and validation cohorts, then assigned into smaller subgroups according to preoperative risk factors. Primary outcome was hypotension risk, defined for each intraoperative MAP value from 65 to 100 mm Hg as the proportion of a value’s total measurements followed by at least 1 MAP <65 mm Hg within 5 or 10 minutes, and calculated for all values in each subgroup. Five models depicting MAP-associated IOH risk were compared according to best fit across subgroups with proportions whose confidence interval was <0.05. For the best fitting model, (1) performance was validated, (2) low-risk MAP targets were identified according to applied benchmarks, and (3) preoperative risk factors were evaluated as predictors of model parameters.
A total of 166,091 surgeries were included, with 121,032 and 45,059 surgeries containing 5.4 million and 1.9 million MAP measurements included in the training and validation sets, respectively. Thirty-six subgroups with at least 21 eligible proportions (confidence interval <0.05) were identified, representing 92% and 94% of available MAP measurements, respectively. The exponential with theta constant model demonstrated the best fit (weighted sum of squared error 0.0005), and the mean squared error of hypotension risk per MAP did not exceed 0.01% in validation testing. MAP targets ranged between 69 and 90 mm Hg depending on the subgroup and benchmark used. Increased age, higher American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status, and female sexindependently predicted (P < .05) hypotension risk curves with less rapid decay and higher plateaus.
We demonstrate that IOH risk specific to a given MAP is patient-dependent, but predictable before surgery. Our model can identify intraoperative MAP targets before surgery predicted to reduce a patient’s exposure to IOH, potentially allowing clinicians to develop more personalized approaches for managing hemodynamics.
- Question: Blood pressures commonly maintained during noncardiac surgery possess inherently different risks of intraoperative hypotension (IOH); can those with the lowest risks be predicted before surgery to reduce exposure to intraoperative hypotension?
- Findings: Using 7.3 million intraoperative blood pressure measurements from 166,091 surgeries, we developed an IOH prediction model, which showed that IOH risk is patient-dependent, but predictable preoperatively using an exponential decay algorithm.
- Meaning: Our model identifies, before surgery and according to a patient’s individual characteristics, which intraoperative mean arterial pressures (MAPs) between 65 and 100 mm Hg possess a low risk of hypotension, thus predicted to reduce IOH compared to others in this clinically acceptable range, potentially allowing clinicians to develop more personalized approaches for managing hemodynamics.